Credit Suisse predicts that roughly 16% of U.S. households with mortgages or over 8 million mortgages will go through foreclosure over the next four years.
If the recession is severe analysts Rob Dubitsky and Lang Yang write that foreclosures could reach 10.2 million.
If banks successfully modify the loan process to assist the borrowers with their mortgages - something the analysts doubt - the number of foreclosed mortgages drops to 6.3 million.
Although those are huge numbers, 32% of all owner-occupied households, or roughly 23.9 million, have no mortgage at all, according to census data.
By the end of this year Credit Suisse estimates 1.8 million mortgages will have entered foreclosure.
This following is a clip from the report:
Despite some initial signs that subprime foreclosures were near a plateau, the combination of severe weakening in the economy, continued decline in home prices, steady increase in delinquencies, particularly in the prime mortgage space, ensure that foreclosure numbers, absent more dramatic intervention, will march steadily higher. While loan modifications and similar interventions (such as the Hope for Homeowners FHA refinancing program) could help to reduce the march of foreclosures, the proliferation of generally timid loan mod programs with confusing loan features raises significant doubt as to whether the current loan mod momentum is sufficient to reduce foreclosures materially. Further, though mortgage walkaways have been important, the disease hasn't infected the general population. However, should the downward spiral in home prices, neighborhood condition and equity deterioration continue, more and more mainstream borrowers are likely to walk away from their homes. Thus far, the population of subprime borrowers in the US is relatively small. However, the severe recession that appears more and more likely, coupled with the collapse of confidence in housing and resultant foreclosures and the impact on credit scores, risks transforming the US into a subprime society. That is, the deeper the foreclosure crisis penetrates into the gene pool, the greater the percentage of American consumers with impaired credit, and therefore limited ability to access credit. Therefore, foreclosures aren't only a housing-related phenomenon and should foreclosures spread, a large percentage of of the population could suffer impaired credit, which in turn would hurt credit availability.
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